Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Lockett from EV Insight

Tyler LockettReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Lockett’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-105) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 60.6% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
The Seahawks offense has played at the 9th-fastest tempo in football (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
In this week’s game, Tyler Lockett is predicted by the projections to rank in the 90th percentile among wideouts with 8.2 targets.
With an extraordinary 23.9% Target% (87th percentile) this year, Tyler Lockett ranks as one of the wideouts with the highest volume in football.
After averaging 82.0 air yards per game last season, Tyler Lockett has seen marked improvement this season, now averaging 87.0 per game.

Cons

Tyler Lockett’s 8.2 adjusted yards per target this season marks a substantial decrease in his receiving ability over last season’s 9.6 mark.
Tyler Lockett is positioned as one of the weakest wideouts in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.87 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 23rd percentile.
This year, the strong Los Angeles Rams defense has allowed a measly 58.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.
This year, the daunting Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a measly 7.4 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards