Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-148/+112).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (+112) after it opened @ 22.5 (-115).

Pros

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by the predictive model to run 66.1 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
In this week’s game, Pat Freiermuth is expected by the predictive model to land in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.4 targets.

Cons

The 5th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a lowly 54.9 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 26.8 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense this year: fewest in football.
Pat Freiermuth’s 10.6% Target Share this year reflects a significant diminishment in his air attack utilization over last year’s 18.9% rate.
After accumulating 50.0 air yards per game last season, Pat Freiermuth has been a disappointment this season, currently pacing 22.0 per game.
Pat Freiermuth’s 15.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season marks a substantial decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 49.0 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards