Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kadarius Toney from EV Insight

Kadarius ToneyReceiving Yards

Right now, Kadarius Toney’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 66.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Kadarius Toney to earn 6.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 75th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Kadarius Toney to be a much bigger part of his team’s passing game this week (16.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.9% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Cons

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in the NFL.
Kadarius Toney has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (7.0 per game) than he did last year (35.0 per game).
Kadarius Toney has put up substantially fewer receiving yards per game (22.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.31 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards