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Chris Meaney
Kadarius ToneyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Chargers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Kadarius Toney’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 66.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Kadarius Toney to earn 6.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 75th percentile among wideouts.
- THE BLITZ projects Kadarius Toney to be a much bigger part of his team’s passing game this week (16.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.9% in games he has played).
- The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in the NFL.
- Kadarius Toney has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (7.0 per game) than he did last year (35.0 per game).
- Kadarius Toney has put up substantially fewer receiving yards per game (22.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.31 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
