Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Julian Hill from EV Insight

Julian HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Julian Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 12.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 12.5 (-110) after it opened @ 13.5 (-115).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.4% pass rate.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (81.5%) versus TEs this year (81.5%).
The Raiders safeties grade out as the 4th-worst safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

Cons

This week’s spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 53.3 plays per game.
Julian Hill has been been lightly used his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of just 1.4% this year, which ranks him in the 20th percentile among TEs.
Julian Hill has notched a meager 2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 24th percentile among tight ends.

Projection

THE BLITZ
13
Receiving Yards