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Chris Meaney
Julian HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Dolphins vs. Raiders
Right now, Julian Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 12.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 12.5 (-110) after it opened @ 13.5 (-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.4% pass rate.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (81.5%) versus TEs this year (81.5%).
- The Raiders safeties grade out as the 4th-worst safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- This week’s spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.
- The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 53.3 plays per game.
- Julian Hill has been been lightly used his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of just 1.4% this year, which ranks him in the 20th percentile among TEs.
- Julian Hill has notched a meager 2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 24th percentile among tight ends.
Projection
THE BLITZ
13
Receiving Yards
13
Receiving Yards
