Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jake Ferguson from EV Insight

Jake FergusonReceiving Yards

Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-114/-114).

Pros

The model projects the Cowboys offensive gameplan to skew 6.4% more towards the passing game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to run the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.8 plays per game.
In this week’s contest, Jake Ferguson is forecasted by the model to land in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.3 targets.
Jake Ferguson has been a more integral piece of his team’s pass game this year (15.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (4.5%).

Cons

With a 11.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s game, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 55.0% of their chances: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Panthers, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 29.9 per game) this year.
Jake Ferguson’s sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 84.5% to 75.4%.
The Panthers defense has surrendered the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 36.0) to tight ends this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards