Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jake FergusonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Panthers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-114/-114).
Pros
- The model projects the Cowboys offensive gameplan to skew 6.4% more towards the passing game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
- The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to run the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.8 plays per game.
- In this week’s contest, Jake Ferguson is forecasted by the model to land in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.3 targets.
- Jake Ferguson has been a more integral piece of his team’s pass game this year (15.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (4.5%).
Cons
- With a 11.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s game, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan.
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 55.0% of their chances: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Panthers, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 29.9 per game) this year.
- Jake Ferguson’s sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 84.5% to 75.4%.
- The Panthers defense has surrendered the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 36.0) to tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
