NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Bills vs. Browns
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.46 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to total 5.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Bills are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
- Dawson Knox has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (70.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (84.0%).
- Dawson Knox’s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, averaging a measly 7.85 yards-per-target compared to a 8.89 rate last year.
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (60.8%) to TEs this year (60.8%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards
41
Receiving Yards
