NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Lions vs. Bears
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-130) after it opened @ 40.5 (-110).
Pros
- This game’s spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bears, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The projections expect Cole Kmet to notch 5.9 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet has totaled a colossal 31.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Cole Kmet has totaled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (50.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect the Bears to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- Cole Kmet’s 73.9% Route% this year shows a meaningful decline in his passing offense usage over last year’s 84.0% figure.
- The Chicago offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- This year, the strong Detroit Lions defense has conceded a paltry 69.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 10th-smallest rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
