Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cole Kmet

Cole KmetReceiving Yards

Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-130) after it opened @ 40.5 (-110).

Pros

This game’s spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bears, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The projections expect Cole Kmet to notch 5.9 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet has totaled a colossal 31.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Cole Kmet has totaled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (50.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Bears to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Cole Kmet’s 73.9% Route% this year shows a meaningful decline in his passing offense usage over last year’s 84.0% figure.
The Chicago offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
This year, the strong Detroit Lions defense has conceded a paltry 69.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 10th-smallest rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards