Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Panthers vs. Cowboys
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 82.5 yards (-140/+110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 82.5 (-140) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).
Pros
- The model projects the Cowboys offensive gameplan to skew 6.4% more towards the passing game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
- The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to run the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.8 plays per game.
- This week, CeeDee Lamb is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 94th percentile when it comes to WRs with 9.9 targets.
- CeeDee Lamb has put up many more adjusted receiving yards per game (110.0) this season than he did last season (82.0).
Cons
- With a 11.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s game, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan.
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 55.0% of their chances: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Panthers, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 29.9 per game) this year.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 121.0) to wide receivers this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
97
Receiving Yards
97
Receiving Yards
