NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Adam TrautmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Broncos vs. Vikings
Right now, Adam Trautman’s receiving yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (-120/-110).
Pros
- Adam Trautman has been used less as a potential target this year (69.4% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (28.5%).
- Adam Trautman has compiled far more air yards this season (15.0 per game) than he did last season (8.0 per game).
- The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has not been good when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.33 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-most in football.
Cons
- The Broncos feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to pass on 52.5% of their plays: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the model to call just 63.3 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-fewest among all teams this week.
- Adam Trautman’s possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 80.6% to 66.7%.
- The Vikings pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. TEs this year, allowing 6.42 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
15
Receiving Yards
15
Receiving Yards
