Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Adam Thielen from EV Insight

Adam ThielenReceiving Yards

Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+104/-134).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-134) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

The Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 6.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
This week’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Panthers, who are massive -11.5-point underdogs.
The leading projections forecast the Panthers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Panthers offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.70 seconds per snap.
Adam Thielen has compiled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (77.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).

Cons

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Dallas Cowboys, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (just 28.6 per game) this year.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Panthers profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
The Cowboys defense has yielded the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 110.0) versus wide receivers this year.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (56.4%) versus wide receivers this year (56.4%).
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 4th-best group of LBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards