Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Adam ThielenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Panthers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+104/-134).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-134) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 6.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- This week’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Panthers, who are massive -11.5-point underdogs.
- The leading projections forecast the Panthers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects the Panthers offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.70 seconds per snap.
- Adam Thielen has compiled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (77.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).
Cons
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Dallas Cowboys, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (just 28.6 per game) this year.
- When it comes to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Panthers profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
- The Cowboys defense has yielded the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 110.0) versus wide receivers this year.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (56.4%) versus wide receivers this year (56.4%).
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 4th-best group of LBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
