Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Colts vs. Eagles
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 68.5 (-110) after it opened @ 73.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- A.J. Brown has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (89.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (77.9%).
- THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to total 9.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
- A.J. Brown has accrued a lot more receiving yards per game (77.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).
Cons
- The Eagles are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- A.J. Brown has posted far fewer air yards this season (91.0 per game) than he did last season (97.0 per game).
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 120.0) to WRs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Receiving Yards
84
Receiving Yards
