Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 68.5 (-110) after it opened @ 73.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
A.J. Brown has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (89.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (77.9%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to total 9.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
A.J. Brown has accrued a lot more receiving yards per game (77.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).

Cons

The Eagles are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
A.J. Brown has posted far fewer air yards this season (91.0 per game) than he did last season (97.0 per game).
The Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 120.0) to WRs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
84
Receiving Yards