Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Chargers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 291.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 291.5 (-125) after it opened @ 292.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 66.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 43.5 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
- The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Patrick Mahomes has thrown for many more yards per game (353.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).
Cons
- The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in the NFL.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.30 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the NFL.
- The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
312
Passing Yards
312
Passing Yards
