Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 291.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 291.5 (-125) after it opened @ 292.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 66.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 43.5 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for many more yards per game (353.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).

Cons

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.30 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
312
Passing Yards