Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Chargers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 275.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 275.5 (-105) after it opened @ 276.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chargers are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.6 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 40.4 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Cons
- Justin Herbert has been among the least efficient QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 6.38 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 15th percentile.
- The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers project as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
314
Passing Yards
314
Passing Yards
