Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 275.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 275.5 (-105) after it opened @ 276.5 (-115).

Pros

The Chargers are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.6 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.4 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

Cons

Justin Herbert has been among the least efficient QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 6.38 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 15th percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers project as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
314
Passing Yards