Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jalen HurtsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Colts vs. Eagles
Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 237.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 237.5 (-125) after it opened @ 238.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- Jalen Hurts has thrown for many more yards per game (233.0) this year than he did last year (194.0).
- Jalen Hurts’s throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% rising from 60.3% to 67.5%.
Cons
- The Eagles are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 9th-least yards in football (just 213.0 per game) against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, allowing 7.42 yards-per-target: the 10th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
261
Passing Yards
261
Passing Yards
