NFL

Bets

November 16, 2023

Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 261.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 261.5 (-115) after it opened @ 256.5 (-115).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 60.6% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
The Seahawks offense has played at the 9th-fastest tempo in football (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
The projections expect Geno Smith to attempt 35.8 passes this week, on average: the 7th-most among all QBs.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.54 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 5th-most in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams linebackers grade out as the worst collection of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

Cons

Geno Smith’s passing precision has tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 69.4% to 66.4%.
This year, the fierce Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded a feeble 66.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 6th-lowest rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
264
Passing Yards