Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Rams vs. Seahawks
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 261.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 261.5 (-115) after it opened @ 256.5 (-115).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 60.6% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- The Seahawks offense has played at the 9th-fastest tempo in football (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
- The projections expect Geno Smith to attempt 35.8 passes this week, on average: the 7th-most among all QBs.
- The Los Angeles Rams defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.54 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 5th-most in the league.
- The Los Angeles Rams linebackers grade out as the worst collection of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.
Cons
- Geno Smith’s passing precision has tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 69.4% to 66.4%.
- This year, the fierce Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded a feeble 66.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 6th-lowest rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
264
Passing Yards
264
Passing Yards
