Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Jaguars vs. 49ers
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-115) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).
Pros
- The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a massive 60.5 per game on average).
- In this week’s contest, Travis Etienne is forecasted by the projection model to slot into the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs with 16.7 rush attempts.
- Travis Etienne has been a much bigger part of his team’s run game this year (68.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (51.6%).
- With a terrific tally of 72.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (94th percentile), Travis Etienne ranks among the leading running backs in the NFL this year.
Cons
- At a -3-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach.
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to run on 39.6% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The model projects this game to have the 5th-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- When talking about run support (and the impact it has on all run game metrics), the offensive line of the Jacksonville Jaguars profiles as the 3rd-worst in football last year.
- This year, the imposing San Francisco 49ers run defense has allowed a feeble 84.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 5th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
