Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Travis Etienne from EV Insight

Travis EtienneRushing Yards

Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-115) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).

Pros

The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a massive 60.5 per game on average).
In this week’s contest, Travis Etienne is forecasted by the projection model to slot into the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs with 16.7 rush attempts.
Travis Etienne has been a much bigger part of his team’s run game this year (68.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (51.6%).
With a terrific tally of 72.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (94th percentile), Travis Etienne ranks among the leading running backs in the NFL this year.

Cons

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to run on 39.6% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The model projects this game to have the 5th-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
When talking about run support (and the impact it has on all run game metrics), the offensive line of the Jacksonville Jaguars profiles as the 3rd-worst in football last year.
This year, the imposing San Francisco 49ers run defense has allowed a feeble 84.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 5th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards