Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Miles SandersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Eagles vs. Commanders
Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 66.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Eagles are a giant 11.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 50.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.6 plays per game.
- Miles Sanders has run for significantly more yards per game (82.0) this season than he did last season (57.0).
Cons
- The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have run for the 10th-least yards in the league (just 113 per game) versus the Washington Commanders defense this year.
- The Washington Commanders defensive ends project as the 6th-best DE corps in the NFL this year with their run defense.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.1% of their plays since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
