Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bills vs. Broncos
Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-125) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this game, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) usually lead to decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased run volume.
- James Cook has been much more involved in his team’s run game this season (51.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (19.1%).
- James Cook has run for substantially more adjusted yards per game (55.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).
- Opposing squads have rushed for the most adjusted yards in football (156 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense this year.
Cons
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to run on 40.6% of their plays: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 2nd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- When it comes to executing run-blocking assignments (and the influence it has on all run game statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the worst in the NFL last year.
- James Cook’s rushing effectiveness has declined this year, notching a mere 4.59 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.79 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
