Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Cook from EV Insight

James CookRushing Yards

Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-125) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).

Pros

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this game, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) usually lead to decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased run volume.
James Cook has been much more involved in his team’s run game this season (51.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (19.1%).
James Cook has run for substantially more adjusted yards per game (55.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).
Opposing squads have rushed for the most adjusted yards in football (156 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense this year.

Cons

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to run on 40.6% of their plays: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 2nd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
When it comes to executing run-blocking assignments (and the influence it has on all run game statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the worst in the NFL last year.
James Cook’s rushing effectiveness has declined this year, notching a mere 4.59 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.79 figure last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards