Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 62.5 (-110) after it opened @ 68.5 (-114).

Pros

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Titans to run on 46.6% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects Derrick Henry to accumulate 19.5 carries in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Derrick Henry comes in as one of the top RBs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a remarkable 3.24 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 86th percentile.
As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in defending against the run, Tampa Bay’s DE corps has been terrible this year, ranking as the worst in football. in football.

Cons

The Titans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Titans to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Titans have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 54.5 plays per game.
Derrick Henry has been a much smaller piece of his offense’s rushing attack this season (69.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (80.1%).
Opposing offenses have run for the 10th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 98.0 per game) vs. the Buccaneers defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
83
Rushing Yards