Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Antonio Gibson from EV Insight

Antonio GibsonRushing Yards

Right now, Antonio Gibson’s rushing yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-125) after it opened @ 35.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 61.7 plays per game.
The Washington Commanders have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders have risked going for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders have used some form of misdirection on 57.2% of their plays since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Cons

The Washington Commanders will be rolling out backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 39.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Antonio Gibson has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
38
Rushing Yards