Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Vikings vs. Saints
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (+105) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings may rely on the pass game less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be forced to use backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
- The leading projections forecast the Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
- In this game, T.J. Hockenson is expected by the projections to find himself in the 98th percentile among tight ends with 7.5 targets.
Cons
- T.J. Hockenson’s ability to pick up extra yardage has diminished this year, accumulating a mere 3.95 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.18 rate last year.
- This year, the imposing Saints defense has surrendered a paltry 64.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 4th-best rate in the league.
- This year, the fierce Saints defense has surrendered the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing TEs: a mere 6.7 yards.
- As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, New Orleans’s LB corps has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 6th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
