Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bills vs. Broncos
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 87.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 68.9% pass rate.
- In this week’s contest, Stefon Diggs is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 10.3 targets.
- Stefon Diggs has accrued many more air yards this year (119.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).
- Stefon Diggs’s 76.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 65.9.
- Stefon Diggs grades out as one of the leading wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 96.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.
Cons
- With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this game, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
- The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 2nd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) usually lead to decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased run volume.
- Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Denver Broncos, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (just 34.6 per game) this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Receiving Yards
84
Receiving Yards
