Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Evans from EV Insight

Mike EvansReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-114).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to earn 7.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point spike in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Mike Evans has been more heavily featured in his offense’s pass attack.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.
Mike Evans grades out as one of the top pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a stellar 63.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 84th percentile.
The Titans defense has been torched for the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (182.0) to wide receivers this year.

Cons

The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to call the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buccaneers this year (only 56.8 per game on average).
After accumulating 117.0 air yards per game last season, Mike Evans has seen a big decline this season, now sitting at 110.0 per game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards