NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Marquise BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Cardinals vs. Falcons
Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (+100) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 130.3 plays on offense called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- In this game, Marquise Brown is expected by our trusted projection set to land in the 91st percentile among wide receivers with 8.8 targets.
- Marquise Brown has accrued a monstrous 96.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among wide receivers.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point spike in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Marquise Brown has been more heavily featured in his offense’s passing game.
Cons
- The Cardinals feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- At the moment, the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in football (57.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Cardinals.
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
- Marquise Brown’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 62.8% to 57.3%.
- This year, the tough Falcons defense has surrendered a paltry 131.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 5th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
