Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Marquise Brown from EV Insight

Marquise BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (+100) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 130.3 plays on offense called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this game, Marquise Brown is expected by our trusted projection set to land in the 91st percentile among wide receivers with 8.8 targets.
Marquise Brown has accrued a monstrous 96.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among wide receivers.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point spike in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Marquise Brown has been more heavily featured in his offense’s passing game.

Cons

The Cardinals feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
At the moment, the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in football (57.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Cardinals.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
Marquise Brown’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 62.8% to 57.3%.
This year, the tough Falcons defense has surrendered a paltry 131.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 5th-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards