Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Eagles vs. Commanders
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 16.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 16.5 (-129) after it opened @ 17.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be rolling out backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 61.7 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 58.8% pass rate.
- Logan Thomas has run fewer routes this season (61.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (82.5%).
- The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Logan Thomas’s ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.2% to 58.2%.
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.4%) to tight ends this year (61.4%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards
22
Receiving Yards
