NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Jerry JeudyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bills vs. Broncos
Right now, Jerry Jeudy’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-129/+100).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (+100) after it opened @ 51.5 (-113).
Pros
- An extreme passing game script is implied by the Broncos being a big -7.5-point underdog this week.
- In this contest, Jerry Jeudy is expected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 78th percentile when it comes to WRs with 6.9 targets.
- Jerry Jeudy slots into the 86th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with an impressive 60.4 figure this year.
- Jerry Jeudy checks in as one of the best wide receivers in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging an impressive 5.37 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 81st percentile.
- This year, the weak Bills pass defense has given up a staggering 76.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the highest rate in football.
Cons
- The model projects the Denver Broncos offensive scheme to tilt 1.5% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
- The projections expect the Broncos as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Broncos have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
