Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jerry Jeudy from EV Insight

Jerry JeudyReceiving Yards

Right now, Jerry Jeudy’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-129/+100).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (+100) after it opened @ 51.5 (-113).

Pros

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Broncos being a big -7.5-point underdog this week.
In this contest, Jerry Jeudy is expected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 78th percentile when it comes to WRs with 6.9 targets.
Jerry Jeudy slots into the 86th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with an impressive 60.4 figure this year.
Jerry Jeudy checks in as one of the best wide receivers in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging an impressive 5.37 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 81st percentile.
This year, the weak Bills pass defense has given up a staggering 76.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the highest rate in football.

Cons

The model projects the Denver Broncos offensive scheme to tilt 1.5% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
The projections expect the Broncos as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Broncos have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards