Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ja'Marr Chase from EV Insight

Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards

Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-134/+104).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 79.5 (+104) after it opened @ 81.5 (-113).

Pros

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 64.3% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
This week, Ja’Marr Chase is anticipated by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 10.6 targets.
When it comes to air yards, Ja’Marr Chase ranks in the lofty 91st percentile among wideouts this year, accruing a whopping 97.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point growth in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Ja’Marr Chase has been more prominently utilized in his team’s pass game.

Cons

The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
At the moment, the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cincinnati Bengals.
Ja’Marr Chase’s 5.28 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season reflects a noteable regression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 6.6% figure.
The Houston Texans pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.49 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the league.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Houston’s CB corps has been terrific this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards