NFL

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November 8, 2023

Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Evan Engram from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Evan EngramReceiving Yards

Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-114).

Pros

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach.
The predictive model expects the Jaguars as the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a massive 60.5 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
Evan Engram’s 53.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season shows an impressive improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 43.0 rate.

Cons

The model projects this game to have the 5th-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This year, the daunting San Francisco 49ers defense has surrendered a meager 64.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 2nd-best rate in the NFL.
The 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus tight ends this year, yielding 4.95 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in football.
The 49ers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards