Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Steelers vs. Packers
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-105) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- In this game, Diontae Johnson is forecasted by the model to slot into the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs with 9.1 targets.
- After accruing 89.0 air yards per game last season, Diontae Johnson has made big progress this season, now sitting at 98.0 per game.
- Diontae Johnson’s 80.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a meaningful gain in his receiving talent over last year’s 56.0 mark.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week’s game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their typical game plan.
- The 6th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Steelers this year (a measly 54.5 per game on average).
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 9th-fewest in football.
- Diontae Johnson has been used less as a potential target this season (78.8% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (96.2%).
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
