Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Buccaneers vs. Titans
Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-127) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Titans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
- In this week’s contest, DeAndre Hopkins is anticipated by the model to slot into the 90th percentile among wideouts with 8.3 targets.
- DeAndre Hopkins has accumulated a monstrous 114.0 air yards per game this year: 97th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- DeAndre Hopkins’s 70.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in football: 95th percentile for WRs.
Cons
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Titans to pass on 53.4% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- The model projects the Titans to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Titans have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 54.5 plays per game.
- The Tennessee offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
- DeAndre Hopkins has totaled quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (67.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards
61
Receiving Yards
