Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bills vs. Broncos
Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-140/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-140) after it opened @ 52.5 (-110).
Pros
- The projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 68.9% pass rate.
- Dalton Kincaid has run a route on 73.4% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- The leading projections forecast Dalton Kincaid to accumulate 7.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- When talking about air yards, Dalton Kincaid grades out in the lofty 75th percentile among tight ends this year, accruing a monstrous 24.0 per game.
- Dalton Kincaid has been one of the leading pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a remarkable 43.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.
Cons
- With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this game, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
- The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 2nd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) usually lead to decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased run volume.
- Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Denver Broncos, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (just 34.6 per game) this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
