NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Eagles vs. Commanders
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.6 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Dallas Goedert has run a route on 84.3% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
- Dallas Goedert has put up many more receiving yards per game (64.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
Cons
- The Eagles are a giant 11.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: least in the NFL.
- Dallas Goedert has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (31.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
- The Washington Commanders defense has given up the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 36.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
