Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Calvin Ridley from EV Insight

Calvin RidleyReceiving Yards

Right now, Calvin Ridley’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-114).

Pros

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach.
The predictive model expects the Jaguars as the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a massive 60.5 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
With an exceptional 92.0% Route% (90th percentile) this year, Calvin Ridley ranks as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume in football.

Cons

The model projects this game to have the 5th-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
With a bad 57.4% Adjusted Catch Rate (18th percentile) this year, Calvin Ridley rates as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league among wideouts.
Calvin Ridley checks in as one of the weakest wide receivers in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.27 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 15th percentile.
The 49ers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards