Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Jaguars vs. 49ers
Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 66.5 (-110) after it opened @ 68.5 (-114).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: most in the league.
- This week, Brandon Aiyuk is anticipated by the projection model to rank in the 89th percentile among wideouts with 8.2 targets.
- After accumulating 69.0 air yards per game last season, Brandon Aiyuk has seen marked improvement this season, now boasting 111.0 per game.
- Brandon Aiyuk’s 81.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 58.8.
- Brandon Aiyuk’s 87.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year indicates a noteworthy progression in his receiving prowess over last year’s 63.0 rate.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 54.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The model projects the 49ers to run the 6th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The 49ers have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.5 plays per game.
- The 49ers offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards
74
Receiving Yards
