Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandon Aiyuk from EV Insight

Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 66.5 (-110) after it opened @ 68.5 (-114).

Pros

Opposing offenses have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: most in the league.
This week, Brandon Aiyuk is anticipated by the projection model to rank in the 89th percentile among wideouts with 8.2 targets.
After accumulating 69.0 air yards per game last season, Brandon Aiyuk has seen marked improvement this season, now boasting 111.0 per game.
Brandon Aiyuk’s 81.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 58.8.
Brandon Aiyuk’s 87.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year indicates a noteworthy progression in his receiving prowess over last year’s 63.0 rate.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 54.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The model projects the 49ers to run the 6th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 49ers have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.5 plays per game.
The 49ers offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards