Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Eagles vs. Commanders
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-115) after it opened @ 69.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.6 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- A.J. Brown has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (91.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (77.9%).
- A.J. Brown has totaled significantly more receiving yards per game (87.0) this year than he did last year (61.0).
Cons
- The Eagles are a giant 11.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: least in the NFL.
- The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards
80
Receiving Yards
