Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trevor Lawrence from EV Insight

Trevor LawrencePassing Yards

Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 243.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 243.5 (-115) after it opened @ 237.5 (-115).

Pros

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Jaguars are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach.
The predictive model expects the Jaguars as the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a massive 60.5 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
Trevor Lawrence ranks as one of the best precision passers in the league this year with an impressive 68.0% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 75th percentile.

Cons

The model projects this game to have the 5th-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 49ers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, giving up 6.81 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-fewest in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.41 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the league.
The 49ers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards