Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Taylor HeinickePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Eagles vs. Commanders
Right now, Taylor Heinicke’s passing yards prop is set at 210.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 210.5 (-125) after it opened @ 214.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be rolling out backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 61.7 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 58.8% pass rate.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Taylor Heinicke’s throwing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 66.0% to 62.1%.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the lowest rate in the league vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (63.2%).
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, allowing 6.21 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
221
Passing Yards
221
Passing Yards
