Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bills vs. Broncos
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 211.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 211.5 (-110) after it opened @ 207.5 (-114).
Pros
- An extreme passing game script is implied by the Broncos being a big -7.5-point underdog this week.
- Russell Wilson’s 65.6% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a meaningful progression in his throwing accuracy over last year’s 59.3% figure.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in the NFL vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year (77.6% Adjusted Completion%).
- This year, the anemic Bills defense has allowed the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing squads: a whopping 8.27 yards.
Cons
- The model projects the Denver Broncos offensive scheme to tilt 1.5% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
- The projections expect the Broncos as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Broncos have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
206
Passing Yards
206
Passing Yards
