NFL

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November 9, 2023

Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Russell Wilson from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Russell WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 211.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 211.5 (-110) after it opened @ 207.5 (-114).

Pros

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Broncos being a big -7.5-point underdog this week.
Russell Wilson’s 65.6% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a meaningful progression in his throwing accuracy over last year’s 59.3% figure.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in the NFL vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year (77.6% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the anemic Bills defense has allowed the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing squads: a whopping 8.27 yards.

Cons

The model projects the Denver Broncos offensive scheme to tilt 1.5% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
The projections expect the Broncos as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Broncos have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
206
Passing Yards