Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for P.J. Walker from EV Insight

P.J. WalkerPassing Yards

Right now, P.J. Walker’s passing yards prop is set at 175.5 yards (+115/-150).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 175.5 (-150) after it opened @ 182.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will be rolling with backup QB PJ Walker this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Phillip Walker’s passing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% rising from 53.0% to 56.8%.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the most yards in football (310.0 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 52.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Phillip Walker to attempt 26.5 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.

Projection

THE BLITZ
158
Passing Yards