Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Chargers vs. Lions
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 262.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to attempt 38.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most out of all quarterbacks.
- When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Detroit’s group of safeties has been lousy this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in football.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive scheme to lean 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- Justin Herbert’s 254.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season signifies a remarkable decrease in his throwing skills over last season’s 281.0 figure.
- This year, the tough Lions defense has surrendered a feeble 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-best rate in football.
- The Detroit Lions defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.41 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
292
Passing Yards
292
Passing Yards
