Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 262.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to attempt 38.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most out of all quarterbacks.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Detroit’s group of safeties has been lousy this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in football.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive scheme to lean 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Justin Herbert’s 254.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season signifies a remarkable decrease in his throwing skills over last season’s 281.0 figure.
This year, the tough Lions defense has surrendered a feeble 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-best rate in football.
The Detroit Lions defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.41 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
292
Passing Yards