Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bills vs. Broncos
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 279.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 279.5 (-115) after it opened @ 274.5 (-115).
Pros
- The projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 68.9% pass rate.
- In totaling a whopping 37.7 pass attempts per game this year, Josh Allen slots in among the top QBs in the league (84th percentile) by this metric.
- When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 6th-best in football this year.
- Josh Allen rates as one of the best QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a remarkable 284.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.
- Josh Allen’s 72.5% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a substantial progression in his passing precision over last year’s 64.2% mark.
Cons
- With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this game, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
- The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 2nd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) usually lead to decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased run volume.
- Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Denver Broncos, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (just 34.6 per game) this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
255
Passing Yards
255
Passing Yards
