Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
John WolfordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Rams vs. Cardinals
Right now, John Wolford’s passing yards prop is set at 196.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the OVER up to 196.5 (+104) after it opened @ 195.5 (+100).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Rams will be starting backup QB John Wolford in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 8th-most yards in the league (261.0 per game) against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.
Cons
- The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Arizona Cardinals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
- The Los Angeles Rams have used play action on a lowly 21.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards
240
Passing Yards
