Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jalen HurtsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Eagles vs. Commanders
Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 242.5 yards (+100/-122).
The public has bet the OVER up to 242.5 (+100) after it opened @ 239.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.6 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Jalen Hurts has thrown for many more yards per game (243.0) this year than he did last year (194.0).
Cons
- The Eagles are a giant 11.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 31.2 passes this week, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: least in the NFL.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in the NFL against the Washington Commanders defense this year (67.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
242
Passing Yards
242
Passing Yards
