Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Jaguars vs. 49ers
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: most in the league.
- Brock Purdy’s 260.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season shows a noteable boost in his passing skills over last season’s 151.0 rate.
- Brock Purdy has been one of the most on-target QBs in the NFL this year with an excellent 69.2% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 84th percentile.
- Brock Purdy’s passing efficiency has gotten better this season, compiling 9.30 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 7.97 rate last season.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the NFL (279.0 per game) against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 54.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The model projects the 49ers to run the 6th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The 49ers have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.5 plays per game.
- In this contest, Brock Purdy is projected by the projection model to wind up with the 6th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.3.
Projection
THE BLITZ
252
Passing Yards
252
Passing Yards
