Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 244.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 244.5 (-115) after it opened @ 242.5 (-115).

Pros

In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.
Baker Mayfield has passed for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (226.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
This year, the poor Tennessee Titans defense has yielded a monstrous 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.
The Titans pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, giving up 8.23 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the league.
The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 4th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

Cons

The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to call the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buccaneers this year (only 56.8 per game on average).
In this contest, Baker Mayfield is anticipated by the model to have the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 33.1.

Projection

THE BLITZ
239
Passing Yards