Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Buccaneers vs. Titans
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 244.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 244.5 (-115) after it opened @ 242.5 (-115).
Pros
- In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.
- Baker Mayfield has passed for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (226.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
- This year, the poor Tennessee Titans defense has yielded a monstrous 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.
- The Titans pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, giving up 8.23 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the league.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 4th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to call the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The 10th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buccaneers this year (only 56.8 per game on average).
- In this contest, Baker Mayfield is anticipated by the model to have the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 33.1.
Projection
THE BLITZ
239
Passing Yards
239
Passing Yards
